US Cotton Market to Remain Optimistic in 2019

2 major surveys indicate favorable pricing of crop following robust 2018.

This year’s US cotton market is forecasted to stay robust based on two recent surveys – the annual Cotton Grower Acreage Survey and the National Cotton Council’s (NCC’s) 38th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.

According to the NCC survey, US cotton producers will plant 14.45 million cotton acres this spring, nearly 3% higher than last year’s figures. ” Should the 2019 forecast hold true, 2018 season and 2019 season will represent the highest two-year total of planted acreage since 2005 season and 2006 season”

A common theme among producers participating in the Cotton Grower survey is that cotton is currently pricing out better than competitive crops. While global trade disputes are creating uncertainty for several crops – including cotton – growers seem to have more faith in cotton than in soybeans. In fact, the demand for cotton in many regions is greater than current production capacities.

The NCC survey reinforces this theme. “For the 2019 crop year, many producers have indicated a desire to reduce soybean acres due to low returns in 2018,” Dr. Jody Campiche, NCC Vice President, Economics & Policy Analysis, said. “As a result, corn is expected to provide the strongest competition for cotton acres in 2019.”
 

Many cotton producers will continue to face difficult economic conditions in 2019, according to the NCC survey. Production costs remain high, and unless producers maintain good yields, current prices may not be enough to cover all production expenses.

Despite these challenges, cotton still appears to be a better alternative for many growers. In addition to indications of more favorable pricing, improved cottonseed varieties continue to increase yield potential and improve cotton’s profitability. Finally, expected water availability in the West may also influence cotton acreage decisions, according to the NCC survey.